Bush will win battle of "miscommunicators."

I'm starting to think that Bush is going to win because Kerry is trying to be Bush-light, and undecided voters make up their minds on simple ideas like if a candidate "seems smart" or "seems like a strong leader," not on specific policy statements or the candidate's record. That will tip the balance.

Kerry is trying so hard to split hairs on policy that he comes across as indecisive.

Bush on the other hand makes clear statements even when they contradict statements made days earlier, such as his flip on whether the war on terror is winnable. (He had a moment of clarity when he spoke to Matt Lauer, saying you can't "win" this kind of war, but when his handlers got to him, the next day he had to say "we will win" to keep up the facade that we are at war, when we really are not. We have a security problem.)

So even when Bush flips, he does it in ways that are easier for people to understand than does Kerry, and so this clarity in "misleading" appears as "honesty" to certain voters. Every statement Kerry makes seems vague compared to Bush, even when both are misleading by not fully explaining their positions. So Bush wins the "miscommunication" battle, and so wins the election.

These undecided voters will think "why vote for Bush-light when I can vote for the real thing?"

The world on the other hand sees the US, led by Bush, as a scary force and so wants change. See below.

Universal

If the world could vote, it's Kerry in a landslide
By Jim Lobe
Full article at http//www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/FI10Aa01.html

WASHINGTON - If the people of the rest of the world could vote in November's US elections, Democratic Senator John Kerry would beat President George W Bush in a landslide. That is the finding of a poll conducted by GlobeScan Incorporated and its affiliates during July and August of nearly 35,000 people in 35 countries in all regions of the world.

The survey, which was released by GlobeScan and the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) here on Wednesday, found that Kerry was favored over Bush by an average of 46% versus 20% in the 35 countries polled, but by a much larger margin among respondents in traditional US allies in Western Europe.

"Only one in five [wants] to see Bush re-elected," said Steven Kull, PIPA's executive director. "Though he is not as well known, Kerry would win handily if the people of the world were to elect the US president."